1. Research & Outlook

Trade and International Integration

September 9, 2024
The Trade and International Integration Research Program aims to improve understanding of the role of global economic integration in development and poverty reduction. We are also developing databases and analytic tools to analyze the impact of policy reforms.
Featured
  • Image for Q3 Trade Watch report

    Goods trade is gaining momentum. Check the latest edition of the Trade Watch Report

    Trade Watch Series, Q3, 2024
    Global goods trade values rose in the four months from April to July from the same period of last year, as volumes tracked record 2022 levels, fuel prices stabilized, and exports grew across most regions. Trade in services expanded further in the second quarter of 2024; international tourist arrivals rose almost to 2019 levels. A measure of global supply chain stress remained high through September 2024, amid disruptions in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean. While shipping rates eased significantly from their July 2024 peaks, they were still more than twice as high as a year ago.
    October 2024 Edition |  Trade Watch Series
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    Trade, value chains and financial linkages in the global economy

    November 14-15, 2024, Rome
    The Bank of Italy, the European Central Bank, the World Bank Development Economics Vice-Presidency (Research Group and Institute for Economic Development) are organizing the third edition of the conference “Trade, value chains, and financial linkages in the global economy”. The aim is to bring together leading world scholars from both academia and policy institutions to take stock of recent developments in international trade, value chains, financial linkages and their macroeconomic implications.
    Call for Papers (Deadline: September 26, 2024)
  • Postcard for the Trade and Uneven Development Conference

    Trade and Uneven Development Conference

    September 12-13, 2024, Washington, DC
    International trade has historically been a force for development and poverty reduction. But trade is increasingly viewed as contributing to inequality and risk. To discuss the role of international trade on development outcomes, the World Bank and the editorial team from the Journal of International Economics are hosting a research conference in Washington, DC on September 12-13, 2024. A live stream of this event will be available on the event website. No registration is necessary to watch the live stream.
    Agenda |  Call for Papers (Now Closed)
  • Postcard for the Policy Research Talk "Self-Arming or Self-Harming? Assessing Trade Policies in LMICs"

    Self-Arming or Self-Harming? Assessing Trade Policies in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

    Policy Research Talk, March 26, 2024
    Recent global challenges, including the pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions, and the urgency of climate change, have thrust trade policy back into the spotlight. This resurgence prompts the question: what trade policies are low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) arming themselves with in response? And are these policies harming more than helping? In this Policy Research Talk, World Bank economists Ana Fernandes and Devaki Ghose focus on answering these questions.
    Event Information |  Video |  Presentation |  More Research by Ana Margarida Fernandes |  More Research by Devaki Ghose
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    Award-winning Research in the Economics of Climate Change

    Award Announcement, March 2024
    To foster research into the nature and implications of climate change, IZA gives an award for “Innovative Research in the Economics of Climate Change” (IRECC) for the two best topical IZA Discussion Papers of the previous year. One of two papers selected for the 2024 IRECC Award is the “The Effects of Climate Change in the Poorest Countries: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad” by DECTI researcher Roman David Zarate and co-authors Remi Jedwab, Federico Haslop, and Carlos Rodriguez Castelan. The IRECC Award recognizes important new insights into the broader, often underestimated consequences of climate change and the effects of environmental policies on society and the labor market.
    Read the Announcement |  Working Paper Version |  More Research by Roman David Zarate
  • Resilient Green Cities

    Cities Spatial Model

    Urban Planning Model, February 2024
    Policymakers in cities around the world grapple daily with challenging decisions on how to allocate scarce resources. Large and costly infrastructure investments, such as new roads or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, as well as new planning regulations or urban regeneration projects can have large and long‑lasting implications. Recent academic research using structural spatial models has made breakthroughs in the evaluation of urban interventions such as new roads or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, as well as new planning regulations, land taxes, and urban regeneration projects. The IGC, in collaboration with a Trade and Integration team researcher, has created an R package that operationalises this model in a user-friendly format on open-source software.
    Introduction to the Model |  More Research by Roman Zarate
  • Container ship

    How trade economists busted corruption at the port

    Trade Talks Podcast, December 2023
    At the major port in Madagascar, a handful of corrupt customs officials were cheating their government out of millions of dollars of tax revenues. In an episode from the Trade Talks Podcast, Ana Margarida Fernandes explains how her team used economic tools to catch them and how the corruption later returned in a new form.
    Listen to the Podcast Episode |  Corruption in Customs |  More Research by Ana Margarida Fernandes
  • Lao, trade, AEO, Thailand

    Ninth IMF-WBG-WTO Trade Conference

    October 24-25, 2023
    The 9th IMF-World Bank-WTO Trade Research Conference brought together the three international organizations at a time of historically low trade growth, rising trade tensions, and a surge in industrial policy measures across Advanced and Emerging Economies. The event covered issues of industrial policy, geoeconomic fragmentation, trade and climate, services trade, and inclusion and trade, among others. Presentations from Ana Margarida Fernandes, Erhan Artuc, Bob Rijkers, Devaki Ghose of the Trade and Integration Team are available on the Conference website.
    Crops, Conflict and Climate Change |  Fertilizer Import Ban, Agro-exports, and Welfare: Evidence from Sri-Lanka |  Trade, Outsourcing and the Environment
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    Joint UNCTAD-World Bank Workshops on Non-Tariff Measures

    May 30, 2023, Washington, DC & June 23-26, 2023, Geneva
    In 2018, UNCTAD and the World Bank launched the “Top-25 Traders non-tariff measures (NTMs database)” and preliminary descriptive and analytical results. Five years later, the database has been used in a growing body of policy-related research and reports. The May workshop showcased the latest rigorous and policy-relevant research and analysis of trade-related regulations and NTMs. Following this, the June event discussed how non-tariff measures are shaping the new trade policy landscape and explored their role in advancing non-trade objectives
    June 23-26, 2023, Geneva Event |  May 30, 2023, Washington Event
  • Container ship, trade

    Beyond Trade: How deep trade agreements shape non-trade outcomes

    eBook, June 2023
    Trade agreements increasingly include disciplines aimed at achieving non-trade objectives: promoting FDI, technology transfers, workers’ movements, but also improving labor conditions, environmental quality and achieving other broader social goals. This eBook brings together a group of leading economists to investigate the economic rationale for including nontrade.
    The Economics of Deep Trade Agreements (eBook, 2021) |  More research by Ana Margarida Fernandes
  • WDR Concept note 2023

    World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies

    Report, 2023
    Against the backdrop of a series of recent crises and longer-term trends, the question is: how to manage cross-mobility in a manner that is beneficial to all? The World Development Report (WDR) is taking a fresh look at these issues. It aims to shift from a narrow focus on labor markets for migrants and legal protection for refugees to a more holistic perspective — one that recognizes the humanity of migrants and the complexity of the societies of origin and destination.
    Main Messages |  Download Full Report |  Concept Note |  WDR 2023 Learning Events
  • Can African trade integration be a game changer?

    Unleashing Africa’s Trade in Services Through Progressive Liberalization

    June 1, 2023, Washington, DC
    Trade in services -- a key path for development – is growing fast. On June 1, 2023, we presented the results of regulatory surveys of services trade policies in Africa and held a discussion between the World Bank Trade and research teams with the WTO, the African Private Sector, AfCFTA Secretariat, African Union, African governments and foreign investors in Africa.
  • Trade Policy Reforms in Ghana

    Globalisation at a cross-roads

    May 11-12, 2023, Paris
    Banque de France, CEPR, the World Bank and University of Surrey jointly organised a workshop to explore current developments in international trade and cross-border economic activity. The event took place at the Banque de France’s Paris Office over two half-days, 11-12 May 2023.
  • Postcard for the event Trade in Flux, Development in Doubt? Meeting the Shifting Challenges to Trade-led Development

    Trade in Flux, Development in Doubt? Meeting the Shifting Challenges to Trade-led Development

    Policy Research Talk, April 2023
    Historically, globalization has played a significant role in shaping the global economy and the nature of international trade through the interconnectedness and interdependence of countries. But rising protectionism, trade tensions, and geopolitical challenges are all casting a long shadow over the future sustainability and effectiveness of globalization. In this Policy Research Talk, World Bank Research Manager Daria Taglioni delved into the changes that could threaten trade-led development.
    Event Information |  Video |  Presentation |  More Research by Daria Taglioni
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LATEST JOURNAL ARTICLES

Understanding firm networks in global agricultural value chains
Anne Beck, Sunghun Lim, Daria Taglioni
Food Policy, vol. 127, August 2024 | Working Paper Version

How resilient was trade to COVID-19?
Maria Bas, Ana Fernandes, Caroline Paunov
Economics Letters, vol. 240, July 2024 | Working Paper Version

Global Reallocations from the US-China Trade War
Pablo Fagjelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, Khandelwal Amit, Daria Taglioni 
American Economic Review Insights, vol. 6, June 2024 | Working Paper Version

The effect of educated leaders on policy and politics: Quasi-experimental evidence for Brazil
Paulo Bastos, Cristian Sanchez
Latin American Economic Review, vol. 33, April 2024

Capital Markets, Temporary Migration and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Bangladesh
Laurent Bossavie, Joseph-Simon Gorlach, Caglar Ozden, He Wang
World Development, vol. 176, April 2024 | Working Paper Version

BOOKS AND REPORTS
  • Container ship, trade

    Beyond Trade: How deep trade agreements shape non-trade outcomes

    Vox eBook, June 2023
    Trade agreements increasingly include disciplines aimed at achieving non-trade objectives: promoting FDI, technology transfers, workers’ movements, but also improving labor conditions, environmental quality and achieving other broader social goals. This eBook brings together a group of leading economists to investigate the economic rationale for including nontrade
    More research by Ana Margarida Fernandes
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    Skilled Migration: A Sign of Europe's Divide or Integration?

    July 2022
    High-skilled migration, whether internal or international, is largely a symptom rather than a cause of the gaps in labor market and educational opportunities, productivity, welfare, and the quality of institutions across the regions. Free movement within the European Union is an incentive for workers and firms to take advantage of these gaps by moving from low- to high-productivity sectors and regions. This report examines the trends, determinants, and impacts of migration of high-skilled workers within the European Union in the past two decades.
    Report |  More research by Çağlar Özden
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    Robots and Trade: Implications for Developing Countries

    2022
    This chapter uses a Ricardian framework to examine the impact on developing countries of robotization in developed countries. The chapter highlights that robot adoption can ultimately benefit workers in developing countries, particularly through lower prices and increased demand for intermediate inputs.
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    Maximizing the Developmental Benefits of GVC Integration While Addressing Emerging Challenges

    September 2021
    How countries engage with GVCs determines how they benefit from them. For an effective and sustainable strategy of GVC participation, governments must identify binding constraints, and design policy and regulatory interventions. This chapter appears in The Routledge Companion to Global Value Chains: Reinterpreting and Reimagining Megatrends in the World Economy.
    Blog Post |  Making Global Value Chains Work for Development
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    The Economics of Deep Trade Agreements

    June 2021
    While multilateral trade negotiations have stagnated and tensions between major players have surged, bilateral and regional agreements seem to have run away with the trade agenda. Many of these agreements have extended their reach well beyond tariffs, covering policy areas such as environment, intellectual property rights, state-owned enterprises. They aim to achieve integration beyond trade, or “deep” integration. This e-book is the result of a World Bank research project on the economics of deep trade agreements. It covers the determinants and consequences of deep trade agreements and discusses how they may shape world trade in a post-COVID-19 world.
    eBook |  VoxEU Blog |  Launch Event, July 29 2021 |  Project Website
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    World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains

    October 2019
    This report examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is at this stage more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation, industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies, and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
    Report |  Website |  Blogs
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    Exports to Jobs: Boosting the Gains from Trade in South Asia

    February 2019
    South Asia’s economy has grown rapidly, and the region has made a significant reduction in poverty. However, jobs for the growing working population remain limited. Policy makers are contending with lingering concerns about jobless growth and poor job quality. This report argues that exports could bring higher wages and better jobs to South Asia.
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    Moving for Prosperity: Global Migration and Labor Markets

    June 2018
    Global labor mobility is a potent tool to end poverty, with migrants tripling their wages or more. Better labor market policies to manage short-run economic tensions can ensure that destination countries and migrants share the benefits of global labor mobility for generations to come.
    Report |  Presentation |  Video |  More research by Çağlar Özden

 

 

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Manager
Daria Taglioni

Daria Taglioni

Research Manager, Trade and International Integration
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